marriage: take two

on proposition H8's passage...

andrew sullivan – using the sacramento bee as his source:

"The final analysis is pretty clear. There was a big overlap between new, largely black Obama voters and the forces for discrimination against gay married couples and our families...The massive black turnout was the critical factor."

nate silver – using, uh, the sacramento bee as his source:

"The notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage."

silver also has some comforting words about the future:

"The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that -- and there's no polite way to put this -- the older voters aren't going to be around for all that much longer, and they'll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era...two or four or six or eight years from now, (marriage equality will) get across the finish line."